It is important to assess Saudi Arabia's economic performance, because its role in the global oil market and how its actions are perceived by international investors have global consequences. We study Saudi Arabia's global competitiveness, accounting for geopolitical risks, productivity, and the role of oil as a commodity and financial asset. We use the net cost-of-carry to capture the oil market risk premium and the super-contango oil market, and include military funding and government expenditure to account for anticipatory and reactive military funding in dealing with likely internal and external threats. Following Clark and MacDonald (1999, 2004) and Fidora et al. (2020), we develop a vector error correction model (VECM) that accurately reflects Saudi Arabia's economy and employ a behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) to estimate currency misalignment as a measure of international competitiveness. We find that domestic productivity is Saudi Arabia's weakness. Rather than being driven by endogenous productivity, Saudi Arabia's competitiveness is largely explained by exogenous factors: global demand for oil as both a commodity and a financial asset, and geopolitical events that diminish competition in the global oil market. Favorable oil market conditions are advantageous, but super-contango episodes are detrimental to the Saudi economy. Saudi Arabia's competitiveness and recovery from the 2020 shocks hinge on the recovery of global demand, the speed of the energy transition, and investors' sentiments to invest in the oil sector. By engaging in trade wars, Saudi Arabia risks accelerating how quickly its own resources and assets become stranded. The 2020 cooperation between OPEC+ and G20 members to stabilize the oil market is commendable, because it will positively impact the global recovery in 2021–2022.

评估沙特阿拉伯的经济表现非常重要，因为沙特阿拉伯在全球石油市场中的作用以及国际投资者如何看待其行为会产生全球影响。我们研究了沙特阿拉伯的全球竞争力，考虑了地缘政治风险，生产力以及石油作为商品和金融资产的作用。我们使用净运输成本来捕获石油市场风险溢价和超级康戈戈石油市场，并包括军事资金和政府支出，以应对预期的和被动的军事资金，以应对可能的内部和外部威胁。继Clark和MacDonald（1999，2004）和Fidora等人之后。（2020年），我们开发了一种矢量误差校正模型（VECM），该模型可以准确反映沙特阿拉伯的 经济，并采用行为均衡汇率（BEER）来评估货币错位，以衡量国际竞争力。我们发现，国内生产率是沙特阿拉伯的弱项。沙特阿拉伯的竞争力并非由内生生产力驱动，而是在很大程度上由外在因素来解释：全球对石油既作为商品又是金融资产​​的需求，以及地缘政治事件削弱了全球石油市场的竞争。有利的石油市场条件是有利的，但超级共舞事件不利于沙特经济。沙特阿拉伯的竞争力和2020年冲击后的复苏取决于全球需求的复苏，能源转型的速度以及投资者对石油行业投资的意愿。通过参加贸易战，沙特阿拉伯有可能加快其自身资源和资产搁浅的速度。值得赞扬的是，OPEC +和G20成员国之间为稳定石油市场而进行的2020年合作将对2021年至2022年的全球复苏产生积极影响。