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Policy implications of remittances, trade liberalization and Dutch disease – A comparative analysis based on income categorization
Resources Policy Pub Date : 2021-04-13 , DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102088
Wei-Wei Zhang , Ramla Sadiq , Tahseen Mohsan Khan , Muhammad Mohsan Khan

Prior research does not provide any consensus on whether Dutch disease can be caused by international remittances. However, remittances cause sectoral imbalances, which may adversely affect the economy. This study's main objective is to determine the impact of remittances on the real exchange rate movement from 1999 to 2019 in 199 countries and territories. This paper will apply the one-step system Generalized Methods of Moment (S-GMM) to the linear dynamic panel data (DPD). This study's main findings indicate that remittances have a depreciating effect on the exchange rate in all countries and in lower-middle-income countries. In comparison, the first lag of remittances has a significant negative impact in high-income countries but a significant positive impact in lower-middle-income countries. The results indicate that lower middle income and low-income economies should adopt macroeconomic policies to neutralize the Dutch disease. From a policy perspective, the imposition of a variable tax or retention on the exports will increase the exporters' cost, and the exchange rate will depreciate accordingly. Such a policy formulation would allow countries to recover from Dutch disease while instigating trade of commodities, which could benefit the economy in the long run. The self-balancing mechanism would also protect the economy against long-run depreciation of currency value.



中文翻译:

汇款,贸易自由化和荷兰疾病的政策影响–基于收入分类的比较分析

先前的研究并未就国际汇款是否引起荷兰疾病引起任何共识。但是,汇款会导致部门失衡,从而可能对经济产生不利影响。这项研究的主要目的是确定199个国家和地区的汇款对1999年至2019年实际汇率变动的影响。本文将单步系统广义矩量法(S-GMM)应用于线性动态面板数据(DPD)。这项研究的主要发现表明,汇款在所有国家和中低收入国家的汇率中都具有贬值作用。相比之下,汇款的第一次滞后对高收入国家产生重大负面影响,但对中低收入国家产生重大正面影响。结果表明,中等偏下收入和低收入经济体应采取宏观经济政策来消除荷兰病。从政策角度看,对出口产品征收可变税或保留金将增加出口商的成本,汇率也会相应贬值。这样的政策制定将使各国从荷兰的疾病中恢复过来,同时促进商品贸易,从长远来看,这可能对经济有利。自平衡机制还可以保护经济免受货币价值的长期贬值的影响。汇率将相应贬值。这样的政策制定将使各国从荷兰的疾病中恢复过来,同时促进商品贸易,从长远来看,这可能对经济有利。自平衡机制还可以保护经济免受货币价值的长期贬值的影响。汇率将相应贬值。这样的政策制定将使各国从荷兰的疾病中恢复过来,同时促进商品贸易,从长远来看,这可能对经济有利。自平衡机制还可以保护经济免受货币价值的长期贬值的影响。

更新日期:2021-04-13
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