Evidence suggests that emerging infectious diseases, such as COVID-19, originate from wildlife species, and that land-use change is an important pathway for pathogen transmission to humans. We first focus on zoonotic disease spillover and the rate at which primary human cases appear, demonstrating that a potential outbreak is directly related to the area of wildlife habitat. We then develop a model of the costs and benefits of land conversion that includes the effect of habitat size on the risk of disease outbreak. Our model and numerical simulations show that incorporating this risk requires more wildlife habitat conservation in the long run, and how much more should be conserved will depend on the initial habitat size. If the area is too small, then no conversion should take place. Any policy to control habitat loss, such as a tax imposed on the rents from converted land, should also vary with habitat area.

有证据表明，新发传染病（如 COVID-19）起源于野生动物物种，土地利用变化是病原体传播给人类的重要途径。我们首先关注人畜共患疾病的外溢和主要人类病例出现的速度，表明潜在的爆发与野生动物栖息地的面积直接相关。然后，我们开发了一个土地转化的成本和收益模型，其中包括栖息地大小对疾病爆发风险的影响。我们的模型和数值模拟表明，从长远来看，纳入这种风险需要更多的野生动物栖息地保护，而应该保护多少将取决于初始栖息地的大小。如果面积太小，则不应进行转换。任何控制栖息地丧失的政策，