ABSTRACT

This study investigated the impacts of climate and socio-economic changes on water resources in the Beas-Sutlej river basin, Himalaya. Multiple-model ensembles of five climate models forced with the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario and the Shared Socio-economic Pathway SSP 1 were used. A validated Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model of the basin was used for assessing the resulting sectoral water allocations. The results showed increasing runoff during the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons, principally as the respective consequences of increased glaciers melting and higher rainfall. The finding also indicates that ensemble mean annual irrigation water demand will decrease by between 8 and 13% in Punjab due to the conversion of agricultural land to urban centres but will increase in Rajasthan by about 14%. These outcomes will be useful for the Bhakra and Beas Management Board in developing adaptation strategies to cope with any future water shortages that may occur in the basin.

摘要

本研究调查了气候和社会经济变化对喜马拉雅 Beas-Sutlej 河流域水资源的影响。使用了由代表性浓度路径 (RCP) 8.5 情景和共享社会经济路径 SSP 1 强制的五个气候模型的多模型集合。经验证的流域水资源评估和规划 (WEAP) 模型用于评估由此产生的部门水资源分配。结果表明，季风前和季风季节的径流增加，主要是冰川融化增加和降雨增加的相应后果。该发现还表明，由于农业用地向城市中心的转变，旁遮普邦的整体平均年灌溉用水需求将减少 8% 至 13%，但拉贾斯坦邦将增加约 14%。