Iran's strategy with respect to Saudi Arabia is a key factor in the complex balance of power of the Middle East as the Iranian–Saudi rivalry impacts the dynamics of peace and conflict across the region from Yemen to Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Bahrain. What is Iranian strategic thinking on Saudi Arabia? And what have been the key factors driving the evolution of Iranian strategy towards the Kingdom? In what marks a substantive shift from its previous detente policy, we argue that Tehran has developed a new containment strategy in response to the perceived threat posed by an increasingly pro-active Saudi Arabia in the post-Arab Spring period. Incorporating rich fieldwork and interviews in the Middle East, this article delineates the theoretical contours of Iranian containment and contextualizes it within the framework of the Persian Gulf security architecture, demonstrating how rational geopolitical decision-making factors based on a containment strategy, rather than the primacy of sectarianism or domestic political orientations, shape Iran's Saudi strategy. Accordingly, the article traces Iranian strategic decision-making towards the Kingdom since the Islamic Revolution of 1979 and examines three cases of Iran's current use of containment against Saudi Arabia in Syria, Yemen and Qatar.

中文翻译：

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从缓和到遏制：伊朗新沙特战略的出现

伊朗对沙特阿拉伯的战略是中东复杂力量平衡的一个关键因素，因为伊朗与沙特的竞争影响了从也门到叙利亚、黎巴嫩、伊拉克和巴林的整个地区的和平与冲突动态。伊朗对沙特阿拉伯的战略思维是什么？推动伊朗对沙特王国战略演变的关键因素是什么？我们认为，德黑兰已经制定了一项新的遏制战略，以应对在后阿拉伯之春时期日益积极主动的沙特阿拉伯所构成的威胁，这标志着其先前的缓和政策发生了实质性转变。结合中东丰富的实地考察和采访，本文描绘了伊朗遏制的理论轮廓，并将其置于波斯湾安全架构的框架内，展示了基于遏制战略而非宗派主义或国内政治取向的理性地缘政治决策因素如何塑造伊朗的沙特战略。因此，文章追溯了自 1979 年伊斯兰革命以来伊朗对沙特王国的战略决策，并研究了伊朗目前在叙利亚、也门和卡塔尔对沙特阿拉伯使用遏制措施的三个案例。