The rise of top-heavy inequality—earnings concentration in a very thin layer of elites—calls into question our understanding of the distributional effects of the Liberal International Order. Far more people lose from globalization, and fewer gain, than traditional economic models suggest. We review three modern trade theories (neo-Heckscher-Ohlin-Stolper-Samuelson or H-O-S-S, new new trade theory, and economic geography) that each arrive at the conclusion of top-heavy inequality by introducing some form of unit heterogeneity—an assumption that the actors we once treated as identical actually differ from one another in important ways. Heterogeneity allows the gains from globalization to concentrate in a narrow segment of workers with superlative talents, extraordinarily productive firms, or heavily agglomerated cities. An analysis of European voting data shows that shocks from trade and migration elicit populist opposition only where the top 1 percent have gained the most. With few politically feasible alternatives to protectionism, most notably the failure of democracies to redistribute income, our analysis predicts a persistence of public support for antiglobalization parties, especially those on the Right.

中文翻译：

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日益严重的不平等对自由国际秩序构成威胁

头重脚轻的不平等的兴起——收入集中在极少数精英身上——使我们对自由国际秩序的分配效应的理解产生了质疑。与传统经济模型所表明的相比，全球化造成的损失要多得多，而收益要少得多。我们回顾了三种现代贸易理论（neo-Heckscher-Ohlin-Stolper-Samuelson 或 HOSS、新贸易理论和经济地理学），每一种都通过引入某种形式的单位异质性得出头重脚轻不平等的结论——假设我们曾经视为相同的演员实际上在重要方面彼此不同。异质性使得全球化的收益集中在一小部分拥有最优秀才能的工人、高产的公司或高度聚集的城市。对欧洲投票数据的分析表明，贸易和移民带来的冲击只会在最富有的 1% 人口获得最多的地方引发民粹主义反对。由于保护主义几乎没有政治上可行的替代方案，最明显的是民主国家未能重新分配收入，我们的分析预测公众对反全球化政党，尤其是右翼政党的支持将持续存在。