Many goods are distributed by processes that involve randomness. In lotteries, randomness is used to promote fairness. When taking social risks, randomness is a feature of the process. The losers of such decisions ought to be given a reason why they should accept the outcome. Surprisingly, good reasons demand more than merely equal ex ante chances. What is also required is a true statement of the form: ‘the result could easily have gone the other way and you could have been the winner’. This rules in standard lotteries but rules out many lotteries based on merely epistemic probability.

中文翻译：

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失败者的充分理由：彩票正当性和社会风险

许多商品是通过涉及随机性的过程分配的。在彩票中，随机性被用来促进公平。在承担社会风险时，随机性是该过程的一个特征。应该给这些决定的失败者一个他们应该接受结果的理由。令人惊讶的是，充分的理由要求的不仅仅是平等事前机会。还需要一个真实的形式陈述：“结果很容易走向相反的方向，你可能是赢家”。这适用于标准彩票，但排除了许多仅基于认知概率的彩票。