Many goods are distributed by processes that involve randomness. In lotteries, randomness is used to promote fairness. When taking social risks, randomness is a feature of the process. The losers of such decisions ought to be given a reason why they should accept the outcome. Surprisingly, good reasons demand more than merely equal ex ante chances. What is also required is a true statement of the form: ‘the result could easily have gone the other way and you could have been the winner’. This rules in standard lotteries but rules out many lotteries based on merely epistemic probability.

中文翻译：

---

失败者的充分理由：彩票理由和社会风险

许多商品是通过涉及随机性的过程分配的。在彩票中，随机性用于促进公平性。在承担社会风险时，随机性是该过程的特征。应该给这些决定的失败者一个理由，让他们接受结果。令人惊讶的是，充分的理由要求的不仅仅是事前平等的机会。还需要以下形式的真实陈述：“结果很容易以相反的方式出现，而您可能是赢家”。这在标准彩票中是规则的，但是仅基于认知概率就可以排除许多彩票。