Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a zoonotic illness which has spread rapidly and widely since December, 2019, and is identified as a global pandemic by the World Health Organization. The pandemic to date has been characterized by ongoing cluster community transmission. Quarantine intervention to prevent and control the transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on delaying the growth and mitigating the size of the epidemic. To our best knowledge, our study is among the initial efforts to analyze the interplay between transmission dynamics and quarantine intervention of the COVID-19 outbreak in a cluster community. In the paper, we propose a novel Transmission-Quarantine epidemiological model by nonlinear ordinary differential equations system. With the use of detailed epidemiologic data from the Cruise ship “Diamond Princess”, we design a Transmission-Quarantine work-flow to determine the optimal case-specific parameters, and validate the proposed model by comparing the simulated curve with the real data. First, we apply a general SEIR-type epidemic model to study the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 without quarantine intervention, and present the analytic and simulation results for the epidemiological parameters such as the basic reproduction number, the maximal scale of infectious cases, the instant number of recovered cases, the popularity level and the final scope of the epidemic of COVID-19. Second, we adopt the proposed Transmission-Quarantine interplay model to predict the varying trend of COVID-19 with quarantine intervention, and compare the transmission dynamics with and without quarantine to illustrate the effectiveness of the quarantine measure, which indicates that with quarantine intervention, the number of infectious cases in 7 days decrease by about 60%, compared with the scenario of no intervention. Finally, we conduct sensitivity analysis to simulate the impacts of different parameters and different quarantine measures, and identify the optimal quarantine strategy that will be used by the decision makers to achieve the maximal protection of population with the minimal interruption of economic and social development.

中文翻译：

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集群社区中 COVID-19 的传播动力学和隔离控制：一种新的传播隔离模型，以钻石公主为案例研究

2019 年冠状病毒病 (COVID-19) 是一种人畜共患病，自 2019 年 12 月以来迅速广泛传播，被世界卫生组织确定为全球大流行病。迄今为止，大流行的特点是持续的集群社区传播。预防和控制传播的检疫干预预计将对延缓增长和减轻流行病的规模产生重大影响。据我们所知，我们的研究是分析集群社区中 COVID-19 爆发的传播动力学和隔离干预之间相互作用的初步努力之一。在本文中，我们通过非线性常微分方程系统提出了一种新颖的传播-隔离流行病学模型。使用游轮“钻石公主”号的详细流行病学数据，我们设计了一个传输隔离工作流程来确定最佳的特定案例参数，并通过将模拟曲线与真实数据进行比较来验证所提出的模型。首先，我们应用一般的 SEIR 型流行病模型，在没有隔离干预的情况下研究 COVID-19 的传播动力学，并给出了对基本繁殖数、感染病例的最大规模、即时康复病例数、流行程度和 COVID-19 流行的最终范围。其次，我们采用提出的传播-隔离相互作用模型来预测 COVID-19 在隔离干预下的变化趋势，并比较隔离和不隔离的传播动态，以说明隔离措施的有效性，这表明，在隔离干预的情况下，与不干预的情况相比，7天内的感染病例数减少了约60%。最后，我们进行敏感性分析，模拟不同参数和不同检疫措施的影响，确定决策者将使用的最佳检疫策略，以在对经济和社会发展影响最小的情况下实现对人口的最大保护。