The present study is an attempt toward the quantification of the impact of climate and land-use change on the hydrological prospect of the Kangshabati river basin of West Bengal. The study also simulates runoff characteristics as a response to hypothetical climatic scenarios. The scope of the study involves, first, to quantify the relative contribution of climate change and land-use change to runoff response and second, to simulate runoff characteristics as a response to hypothetical climatic scenarios. Using a combination of the SWAT model, SWAT Cup, Sequential Mann Kendall Trend Tests, surface and total runoff were generated for 1982–2017, and the mutation point was identified. The results indicate that post-2010, climate change has an overwhelming impact on runoff with its contribution being as high as 99% in the case of total runoff and 89% for surface runoff. And this finding is cemented by dynamic contribution analysis which indicates over-arching climatic impact for every decade, with a sudden increase post-2010. Change in temperature and rainfall has an expected impact on runoff, with a rise in rainfall and decrease in temperature resulting in the higher runoff than the normal, except beyond 2 °C, post which there is a sudden increase in surface runoff response, even in scenarios where there is a decrease in rainfall. While surface runoff rises 2% for every 1% increase in precipitation and decreases by 1.7% for every 1% decrease, the corresponding change for total runoff is 1.4%. The novelty of the work lies in its capacity to provide a rapid framework to the immediate stakeholders in understanding runoff response to different change-based scenario independently and in combination.

本研究是试图量化气候和土地利用变化对西孟加拉邦康沙巴蒂河流域水文前景的影响的尝试。该研究还模拟了径流特征，以响应假设的气候情景。研究范围包括，首先，量化气候变化和土地利用变化对径流响应的相对贡献，其次，模拟作为对假设气候情景的响应的径流特征。使用SWAT模型，SWAT杯，顺序Mann Kendall趋势测试的组合，生成了1982-2017年的地表径流量和总径流量，并确定了突变点。结果表明，2010年后，气候变化对径流具有压倒性的影响，在径流总量中，其贡献高达99％，在地表径流中的贡献高达89％。动态发现分析巩固了这一发现，该分析表明了每十年的总体气候影响，2010年后突然增加。温度和降雨的变化会对径流产生预期的影响，降雨增加和温度降低会导致径流比正常情况要高，除了超过2°C以外，在此之后，即使在春季，地表径流的响应也会突然增加。降雨减少的情况。降水每增加1％，地表径流增加2％，而每减少1％，地表径流减少1.7％，但总径流的相应变化为1.4％。