A key question in biology is the predictability of the evolutionary process. If we can correctly predict the outcome of evolution, we may be better equipped to anticipate and manage species’ adaptation to climate change, habitat loss, invasive species, or emerging infectious diseases, as well as improve our basic understanding of the history of life on Earth. In the present article, we ask the questions when, why, and if the outcome of future evolution is predictable. We first define predictable and then discuss two conflicting views: that evolution is inherently unpredictable and that evolution is predictable given the ability to collect the right data. We identify factors that generate unpredictability, the data that might be required to make predictions at some level of precision or at a specific timescale, and the intellectual and translational value of understanding when prediction is or is not possible.

中文翻译：

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除了生物学之外，进化论没有任何意义


生物学的一个关键问题是进化过程的可预测性。如果我们能够正确预测进化的结果，我们就可以更好地预测和管理物种对气候变化、栖息地丧失、入侵物种或新出现的传染病的适应，并提高我们对生命历史的基本了解。地球。在本文中，我们提出以下问题：未来进化的结果何时、为何以及是否可以预测。我们首先定义可预测，然后讨论两个相互冲突的观点：进化本质上是不可预测的，而如果有能力收集正确的数据，进化是可预测的。我们识别产生不可预测性的因素、在一定精度水平或在特定时间尺度进行预测可能需要的数据，以及理解预测何时可能或不可能的智力和转化价值。