In modelling human behavior during a fire, one has to deal with uncertainties regarding the psychological response due to limited or incomplete knowledge database. The purpose of this paper is to develop a new fuzzy Bayesian Network framework to model causal relationship of psychological response at the initial stage of fire events. Firstly, a new conceptual model namely the PRiF (Psychological Response in a Fire) is developed through the literature of human behaviour in fire evacuation modelling and expert opinion approach. Then, the expert elicitation using fuzzy linguistic concept was adapted in quantifying the PRiF model. Finally, an example of expert elicitation study is demonstrated to illustrate the practical application of the proposed methodology. Results show that the proposed methodology is not only able to capture the sequence of psychological reactions in line with the theory of human behavior in a fire but also can quantitatively measure the likelihood of circumstances of possible undesired scenario, and identify the most influential factors or prioritize the root causes of unsuccessful safe evacuation.

在模拟火灾中的人类行为时，由于知识数据库有限或不完整，必须应对有关心理反应的不确定性。本文的目的是开发一种新的模糊贝叶斯网络框架，以模拟火灾事件初期心理反应的因果关系。首先，通过在疏散消防模型中的人类行为文献和专家意见方法，开发了一种新的概念模型，即PRiF（火灾中的心理反应）。然后，采用模糊语言概念的专家启发被用于量化PRiF模型。最后，以专家启发研究为例，说明了所提出方法的实际应用。