ABSTRACT

Why and how do information and communication technologies (ICTs) shape the intensity of rebel violence? Recent studies find that ICTs can both increase and decrease such violence. We argue that, during civil wars, this effect depends on the type of ICTs. Mobile phones give rebels better military coordination to organize violence. In contrast, the internet increases the constraints of rebel groups to use violence. On the one hand, the internet increases the visibility of rebel groups forcing them to moderate their levels of violence. On the other hand, the internet gives rebels’ opponents better tools to limit the levels of rebel violence. We test these two arguments empirically with panel data of rebel violence in countries experiencing a civil war from 1989 to 2007. Through a series of negative binomial regressions, we find general support for our hypotheses. For the case of the internet, we specifically find that its effects are concentrated in more recent periods when social media became more widespread.

摘要

信息和通信技术 (ICT) 为什么以及如何影响反叛暴力的强度？最近的研究发现，信息通信技术既可以增加也可以减少这种暴力。我们认为，在内战期间，这种影响取决于信息通信技术的类型。移动电话使叛乱分子更好地进行军事协调以组织暴力。相比之下，互联网增加了反叛团体使用暴力的约束。一方面，互联网提高了反叛组织的知名度，迫使他们缓和暴力程度。另一方面，互联网为反叛者的反对者提供了更好的工具来限制反叛者的暴力程度。我们用 1989 年至 2007 年经历内战的国家的反叛暴力面板数据实证检验了这两个论点。 通过一系列负二项式回归，我们发现我们的假设得到普遍支持。就互联网而言，我们特别发现它的影响集中在最近社交媒体变得更加普遍的时期。