Alcohol consumption in adolescence is widespread. Several studies have investigated alcohol use in minors and its consequences in adulthood, but prospective findings on psychosocial predictors for problematic alcohol use (PAU) already in youth are still limited. Next to genetic aspects, psychosocial predictors appear to be particularly relevant. The objective of the present longitudinal survey was to explore psychosocial influences on PAU in adolescence. At baseline, 1,444 adolescents (52.1% girls, average age: 14.65 years) were surveyed. Two years later (at follow-up), we were able to re-assess 515 adolescents (mean age: 16.60 years). Both times, a standardized questionnaire was applied to explore PAU and various psychosocial aspects. We conducted multiple imputation, created 100 datasets with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm and calculated regression analyses to identify predictors for PAU. In a multivariable analysis, we found that female gender (protective factor), school-type ‘Gymnasium’ (highest level of school education, protective factor), PAU, more conduct problems and lower psychological well-being (all at baseline) predicted adolescent PAU at follow-up. In supplementary analyses for frequent alcohol use (regardless of quantity) and high alcohol consumption quantity (regardless of frequency), these predictors could only partially be found again. According to the findings of the present study, psychosocial aspects are relevant for PAU in adolescence, and particularly psychological well-being should be given more attention in primary prevention measures and treatment approaches.

青春期饮酒十分普遍。几项研究调查了未成年人饮酒及其对成年的影响，但有关青少年中饮酒问题的社会心理预测因素（PAU）的前瞻性研究仍然有限。除遗传因素外，社会心理预测因素似乎特别相关。本纵向调查的目的是探讨青春期对PAU的社会心理影响。在基线时，对1,444名青少年（52.1％的女孩，平均年龄：14.65岁）进行了调查。两年后（随访），我们能够重新评估515名青少年（平均年龄：16.60岁）。两次，都使用标准化问卷调查了PAU和各种社会心理方面。我们进行了多次估算，使用Markov Chain Monte Carlo算法创建了100个数据集，并进行了回归分析以识别PAU的预测因子。在多变量分析中，我们发现女性性别（保护性因素），学校类型的“健身房”（最高学历，保护性因素），PAU，更多的行为问题和较低的心理健康状况（均在基线水平）可预测青少年后续行动中的PAU。在频繁饮酒（无论数量如何）和高饮酒量（无论频率如何）的补充分析中，这些预测因素只能再次被部分发现。根据本研究的发现，心理社会方面与青春期PAU有关，尤其是在一级预防措施和治疗方法中应更加关注心理健康。