ABSTRACT

Availability of full-year economic data is indicative of an opportune time to compare and contrast predicted and actual economic impact. In this regard, this study delineates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the gambling industry using Macao, the world’s largest destination-dependent gambling hub, as a case. Using a series of quantitative analysis (ARIMA, correlation, and regression) on longitudinal data, the findings reveal that the revenue of the Macao gambling industry is significantly dependent on tourist arrivals, and that the industry is evidenced – using predicted and actual values – to experience an unprecedented decline in revenue as a result of plummeting tourist arrivals. The findings also indicate that Macao is a gambling-dependent economy as the decline in gambling revenue coincides with the decline in economic indicators such as GDP, median salary, and employment rate. This article concludes with pragmatic suggestions (e.g. reimagine strategies, seek virtual alternatives) to help gambling hubs that are destination-dependent to navigate in and recover from crisis such as the COVID-19 pandemic.

摘要

全年经济数据的可用性是比较和对比预测和实际经济影响的最佳时机。在这方面，本研究以世界上最大的依赖目的地的赌博中心澳门为例，描述了 COVID-19 大流行对赌博业的影响。通过对纵向数据进行一系列定量分析（ARIMA、相关性和回归），研究结果表明，澳门博彩业的收入在很大程度上取决于游客人数，并且使用预测值和实际值证明了该行业由于游客人数锐减，收入出现前所未有的下降。调查结果还表明，澳门是一个依赖赌博的经济体，因为赌博收入的下降与GDP、工资中位数和就业率等经济指标的下降不谋而合。本文最后提出务实的建议（例如重新构想策略、寻求虚拟替代方案），以帮助依赖目的地的博彩中心在 COVID-19 大流行等危机中导航和恢复。