We set out to investigate whether interindividual differences in cognition affect the susceptibility to four forecasting biases: (a) optimism bias, (b) adding noise to forecasts, (c) presuming positive autocorrelation when series are independent, and (d) trend damping. All four biases were prevalent in the results, but we found no consistent relationships with cognition (cognitive style, cognitive reflection). Our sample included both novice and expert forecasters. They did not differ significantly in their susceptibility to biases. The lack of individual differences in bias susceptibility suggests that universal approaches to debiasing are possible.

中文翻译：

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预测偏差易感性的个体差异

我们着手研究认知的个体差异是否会影响对四种预测偏差的敏感性：(a) 乐观偏差，(b) 向预测添加噪音，(c) 当序列独立时假设正自相关，以及 (d) 趋势阻尼。所有四种偏见在结果中都很普遍，但我们发现与认知（认知风格、认知反思）没有一致的关系。我们的样本包括新手和专家预测者。他们对偏见的敏感性没有显着差异。偏见敏感性的个体差异的缺乏表明消除偏见的通用方法是可能的。