Intrafirm trade represents greater than one-third of total U.S. international trade in goods. Since these are not arm’s-length transactions, trade policymakers have voiced concerns that income shifting may distort international trade in goods statistics through the manipulation of transfer prices. Using country-level data on intrafirm exports and imports, we estimate a path analysis that simultaneously tests how and to what extent tax-motivated transfer pricing and real investment decisions affect intrafirm trade in goods statistics. Contrary to speculation, we do not find an economically significant relation between transfer pricing and intrafirm trade in goods statistics. In contrast, we find that tax-motivated location decisions create a 21 (20) percent or $819.7 ($927.1) million difference in mean intrafirm exports (imports) between the U.S. and a low- and high-tax country. This study provides trade policymakers with relevant information about the extent to which real investment decisions and accounting manipulations affect intrafirm trade in goods statistics and contributes to the international trade and income shifting literatures.

公司内贸易占美国国际货物贸易总额的三分之一以上。由于这些不是公平交易，贸易政策制定者表示担心收入转移可能通过操纵转移价格扭曲国际货物贸易统计。我们使用企业内部出口和进口的国家级数据，估计了一个路径分析，该分析同时测试了税收驱动的转移定价和实际投资决策如何以及在多大程度上影响企业内部货物贸易统计。与投机相反，我们没有发现转移定价和企业内部货物贸易统计之间存在经济上的显着关系。相比之下，我们发现受税收驱动的选址决策在美国之间的平均企业内部出口（进口）上产生了 21 (20)% 或 8.19.7 亿美元（9.271 亿美元）的差异。以及一个低税收和高税收的国家。本研究为贸易政策制定者提供了有关实际投资决策和会计操纵在多大程度上影响企业内部货物贸易统计以及对国际贸易和收入转移文献做出贡献的相关信息。