This paper empirically investigates the effects of expectation shocks on macroeconomic activities as monetary policy shifts with economic conditions. Prior work has focused on linear relationships between expectation shocks and economic conditions. Here, switching econometric models are used to investigate shifting policy linked to economic conditions. Motivated by the Federal Reserve Bank's attention to inflation rates and unemployment rates, several policy linkage structures are investigated; one linked to the inflation rate, two linked to unemployment rates and one using both the inflation rate and unemployment rate. Identifying an expectation shock by using the timing of information in the survey forecasts and the actual data releases, it is shown that the effects of expectation shocks on current and future macroeconomic activities are stronger under economic conditions in which the Federal Reserve Bank would be more hawkish about inflation.

本文对货币政策随经济状况变化而发生的预期冲击对宏观经济活动的影响进行了实证研究。先前的工作着重于预期冲击与经济状况之间的线性关系。在这里，转换计量经济学模型用于研究与经济状况相关的转移政策。受美联储对通货膨胀率和失业率关注的推动，对几种政策联系结构进行了研究。一类与通货膨胀率相关，二类与失业率相关，一类同时使用通货膨胀率和失业率。通过使用调查预测和实际数据发布中的信息时机来确定预期冲击，