Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America ( IF 9.4 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-27 , DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2015972118 Alexei V Tkachenko 1 , Sergei Maslov 2, 3, 4 , Ahmed Elbanna 5, 6 , George N Wong 7 , Zachary J Weiner 7 , Nigel Goldenfeld 4, 7
Epidemics generally spread through a succession of waves that reflect factors on multiple timescales. On short timescales, superspreading events lead to burstiness and overdispersion, whereas long-term persistent heterogeneity in susceptibility is expected to lead to a reduction in both the infection peak and the herd immunity threshold (HIT). Here, we develop a general approach to encompass both timescales, including time variations in individual social activity, and demonstrate how to incorporate them phenomenologically into a wide class of epidemiological models through reparameterization. We derive a nonlinear dependence of the effective reproduction number
中文翻译:
时间依赖性异质性会导致 COVID-19 流行病的短暂抑制,而不是群体免疫 [群体生物学]
流行病通常通过反映多个时间尺度因素的一系列波浪传播。在短时间内,超级传播事件会导致爆发和过度分散,而长期持续的易感性异质性预计会导致感染峰值和群体免疫阈值(HIT)降低。在这里,我们开发了一种涵盖两个时间尺度的通用方法,包括个体社会活动的时间变化,并演示如何通过重新参数化将它们在现象学上纳入广泛的流行病学模型中。我们推导出有效繁殖数的非线性相关性