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Effects of Location-Specific Meteorological Factors on COVID-19 Daily Infection in a Tropical Climate: A Case of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Advances in Meteorology ( IF 2.1 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-10 , DOI: 10.1155/2021/6675943
Ezekiel Kaura Makama 1, 2 , Hwee San Lim 1
Affiliation  

Insufficient information on the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has made it more difficult for the world to tackle its continuous implosion. Meteorological and environmental factors, in both laboratory and epidemiological studies, have been reported to affect the survival and transmission of the virus. In this study, the possible effects of location-specific meteorological parameters in a tropical climate on new daily COVID-19 infection (NDI) are investigated in Kuala Lumpur from 14 March 2020 to 31 August 2020. A generalized additive model (GAM) was imposed on ambient temperature (T) and absolute humidity (AH) to explore their nonlinear relationship with NDI. Piecewise linear regression was then used to further discern the relationships below and above the threshold values of both T and AH. The relationship between T and NDI, which was linear and statistically significant for T > 29.7°C, showed that each unit rise in temperature increases NDI by about 3.210% (CI: 1.372–7.976). AH had a more pronounced linear association with NDI for AH ≤ 22.6 g/m3 but tended to flatten the exposure-response curve above this value. A 1 g/m3 increase in AH increases NDI by 3.807% (CI: 2.064–5.732). Generally, the results indicated a positive association between T and NDI, particularly above 29.7°C, while the association with AH showed a stronger positive relationship below 22.6 g/m3. The implication of this is that COVID-19 could not be suppressed on account of warmer weather as such public health interventions remain imperative.

中文翻译:

特定位置的气象因素对热带气候下COVID-19日常感染的影响:以马来西亚吉隆坡为例

关于新型冠状病毒(COVID-19)的信息不足,使世界更难以解决其持续内爆的问题。在实验室和流行病学研究中,气象和环境因素均已报告会影响病毒的生存和传播。在这项研究中,从2020年3月14日至2020年8月31日,在吉隆坡研究了热带气候中特定于位置的气象参数对新的每日COVID-19感染(NDI)的可能影响。在环境温度(T)和绝对湿度(AH)上探讨它们与NDI的非线性关系。然后使用分段线性回归进一步区分两个T的阈值上下的关系和AH。T和NDI之间的关系是线性的,并且在T  > 29.7°C时具有统计学意义,表明温度每升高一个单位,NDI就会增加约3.210%(CI:1.372–7.976)。当AH≤22.6 g / m 3时,AH与NDI的线性关系更为明显,但高于该值时,其曝光-响应曲线趋于平坦。AH浓度每增加1 g / m 3,NDI就会增加3.807%(CI:2.064-5.732)。通常,结果表明T和NDI之间呈正相关,尤其是在29.7°C以上时,而与AH之间的正相关则在22.6 g / m 3以下表现出更强的正相关。。这意味着由于天气转暖,无法抑制COVID-19,因为此类公共卫生干预措施仍然势在必行。
更新日期:2021-04-11
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