ABSTRACT

While the birthday effect has been widely studied in the economics and sport literature, this study introduces the concept of the ‘real’ birthday effect. It holds that birthday celebrations yield fatigue, which negatively affect running performance. The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of players’ birthdays on post-birthday running performance using data from the German Football Bundesliga (2011–2018). The dataset includes 1,040 different field players who played in 2,142 matches (n= 49,233). Running performance was measured by the total distance covered during the game (in m per minute) and the number of intensive runs (>20 and <24 km/h; per minute). On average, players ran 123.68 m and performed 0.70 intensive runs per minute, which are equivalent to 11.1 km and 63 intensive runs during a 90-minute match. The results of fixed effects panel regression analyses, which also control for various player, game, and team characteristics, show that players perform significantly fewer intensive runs on the day following their birthday. This finding supports the concept of the ‘real’ birthday effect. Football coaches should reconsider fielding players on match days succeeding their birthday as these players perform significantly fewer intensive runs.

摘要

虽然生日效应已在经济学和体育文献中得到广泛研究，但本研究引入了“真实”生日效应的概念。它认为生日庆祝会产生疲劳，这会对跑步表现产生负面影响。本研究的目的是使用德甲联赛（2011-2018 年）的数据来检验球员生日对生日后跑步表现的影响。该数据集包括 1,040 名不同的场上球员，他们参加了 2,142 场比赛（n= 49,233)。跑步表现的衡量标准是比赛期间跑过的总距离（以米/分钟为单位）和高强度跑步的次数（>20 和 <24 公里/小时；每分钟）。平均而言，球员每分钟跑123.68米，进行0.70次密集跑，相当于一场90分钟比赛的11.1公里和63次密集跑。固定效应面板回归分析的结果也控制了各种球员、比赛和球队的特征，表明球员在生日后的第二天进行的密集跑步明显减少。这一发现支持了“真正的”生日效应的概念。足球教练应该在他们生日之后的比赛日重新考虑派出球员，因为这些球员的高强度跑明显减少。