Abstract

Black swans and dragon kings both represent metaphors for extremely large adverse events with tremendous impact on society and industry. However, while dragon kings refer to those harmful events, which are predictable to some degree, black swans are a surprise because the consequence of them far exceeds what anyone had previously estimated, even using sophisticated risk analysis of low probability events. Nuclear accidents in Chernobyl and Fukushima represent salient examples of black swans. This article aims to address how international nuclear law copes with dragon kings and how black swans may impact existing legal framework on peaceful uses of nuclear energy worldwide.

中文翻译：

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黑天鹅，龙王与国际核法的不确定性

摘要

黑天鹅和龙王都代表着对社会和工业产生巨大影响的巨大不良事件的隐喻。但是，尽管龙王提到的那些有害事件在某种程度上是可以预见的，但黑天鹅却是一个惊喜，因为即使使用低概率事件的复杂风险分析，黑天鹅的后果也远远超出了任何人先前的估计。切尔诺贝利和福岛的核事故是黑天鹅的突出例子。本文旨在探讨国际核法律如何应对龙王，以及黑天鹅如何影响现有的全球范围内和平利用核能的法律框架。