The accurate prediction of ship trajectory has great significance in maritime transportation. Among all the prediction methods, multi-step prediction has received increasing attention because it can predict both time and position information in the future period. However, the existing methods are either complex or have low prediction accuracy. In order to overcome the limitations, a physical hypothesis is introduced to balance the complexity and the accuracy. The cubic spline interpolation and historical trajectories are used to realize it. The advantages of TPNet and LSTM are combined in the proposed method and four parts are involved: the AIS data preprocessing method, the solutions of destination point and support point, and the uncertainty analysis. The proposed method is not only easy to implement and suitable for real-time analysis, but also has a high prediction accuracy. The case study on a ferry ship in the Jiangsu section of the Yangtze River indicates the validity of the method.

船舶轨迹的准确预测在海上运输中具有重要意义。在所有的预测方法中，多步预测越来越受到关注，因为它可以预测未来时间和位置信息。但是，现有方法要么复杂要么预测精度低。为了克服这些限制，引入了物理假设以平衡复杂性和准确性。利用三次样条插值和历史轨迹来实现。提出的方法结合了TPNet和LSTM的优点，涉及四个部分：AIS数据预处理方法，目的点和支持点的求解以及不确定性分析。该方法不仅易于实现，而且适合于实时分析，而且具有很高的预测精度。以长江江苏段一艘渡轮为例，说明了该方法的有效性。