Under the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments‐East Asia (CORDEX‐EA‐II), the outputs from two regional climate models (RCMs) driven by four global climate models (GCMs) are used to investigate the characteristics and possible mechanisms of the projected elevation‐dependent warming (EDW) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) under the Representative Concentration Pathway emission scenario 8.5 (RCP8.5). Results show that widespread warming over the TP is projected with considerable disagreements in warming intensity and the maximum warming center among RCMs. The largest spread in the surface air temperature (T_as) projections is found above 5,000 m, indicating that a large uncertainty exists over the higher elevations. A marked EDW signal over the TP is simulated under the RCP 8.5 by the multi‐RCM ensemble mean for all seasons, particularly in autumn. Based on the analysis of the surface energy budget, it is found that the surface albedo feedback (SAF) is the primary contributor to EDW and acts as the main source of uncertainty in EDW projections among RCMs. The downward longwave radiation (DLW) is found to be the dominant factor in regulating T_as change over the TP, and its contribution to EDW is model‐dependent. Furthermore, the structure and magnitude of projected EDW are sensitive to the RCM physics and driving GCM, as they can alter the projections of snow cover and albedo, which modulate the simulated SAF and its effect on EDW. Additionally, RegCM4 shows a higher sensitivity to the anthropogenic greenhouse forcing than WRF, evidenced by the larger temperature projections and stronger EDW signal in RegCM4.

中文翻译：

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从CORDEX-EA区域气候模拟的集合看青藏高原的海拔依赖性变暖

在东亚区域气候减缩协调实验（CORDEX-EA-II）下，使用由四个全球气候模型（GCM）驱动的两个区域气候模型（RCM）的输出来研究预计海拔的特征和可能的机制代表浓度路径排放情景8.5（RCP8.5）下青藏高原（TP）的依赖变暖（EDW）。结果表明，预计TP普遍变暖，而RCM之间的变暖强度和最大变暖中心存在很大的分歧。地表空气温度的最大散布（T _as）在5,000 m以上发现了投影，这表明较高的海拔高度存在很大的不确定性。在整个RCP 8.5的RCP 8.5下，所有季节（特别是秋季）的多RCM集合均值都模拟了TP上明显的EDW信号。根据对表面能收支的分析，发现表面反照率反馈（SAF）是EDW的主要贡献者，并且是RCM之间EDW预测不确定性的主要来源。发现向下的长波辐射（DLW）是调节T的主要因素，_因为TP的变化，其对EDW的贡献取决于模型。此外，预计的EDW的结构和大小对RCM物理和驱动GCM都很敏感，因为它们可以改变积雪和反照率的投影，从而调制模拟的SAF及其对EDW的影响。此外，RegCM4对人为温室强迫的敏感性高于WRF，这可由RegCM4的较大的温度预测和较强的EDW信号证明。