Abstract

The timely restoration of water treatment devices is a prerequisite for sustainable water supply to consumers. Difficulties in estimating the moments of such recovery are associated with variability in the failure rate of mechanical systems. In this regard, two statistical approaches are proposed in this paper for scheduling the frequency of such recovery: estimating the constant frequency of maintenance for different groups of identical devices or systems (standard maintenance) or evaluating this frequency from the actual performance of individual devices (state maintenance). It is shown what approach should be used depending on the goal: to prevent devices from operation with expired service life or to make better use of the resource capabilities of these devices. It is also shown that the actual service life may significantly differ from its average value for groups of similar systems due to the influence of variability in the composition of source water and the characteristics of working units. Some limitations and recommendations on the practical implementation of forecasting the moments of unacceptably high losses in the performance-controlling parameter of water treatment devices and systems are considered. The novelty of this study is that it is based on the provisions of reliability theory, which provides a substantiated approach to the formation of a maintenance regime: the matter that becomes more urgent when designing water treatment technologies and equipment operation. The transition to these provisions, even in “advanced” areas of technology such as aerospace industry, encounters a number of difficulties, which the authors have managed to overcome in the case of water use problems to recommend the relevant specialists to pay attention to the potential efficiency of this approach and its use in the practice of operating water treatment devices and systems.

中文翻译：

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水处理系统使用寿命的统计估算

摘要

及时恢复水处理设备是向消费者持续供水的前提。估计这种恢复时刻的困难与机械系统故障率的变化有关。在这方面，本文提出了两种统计方法来安排这种恢复的频率：估算不同组相同设备或系统的维护的恒定频率（标准维护）或根据单个设备的实际性能评估该频率（状态维护）。它显示了应根据目标使用哪种方法：防止设备使用寿命到期或更好地利用这些设备的资源功能。还显示出，由于源水组成的可变性和工作单元的特性的影响，实际使用寿命可能与同类系统组的平均值有很大差异。考虑了在水处理设备和系统的性能控制参数中预测超高损耗瞬间的实际实施方面的一些局限性和建议。这项研究的新颖之处在于它基于可靠性理论的规定，这为形成维护制度提供了一种有力的方法：在设计水处理技术和设备运行时，这一问题变得更加紧迫。向这些规定的过渡，即使是在航空航天工业等技术的“先进”领域，