What was driving the migrations of the first farmers across Europe? How were demography, society, and environment interconnected to give rise to the macroregional expansion pattern that archaeology is revealing? We simulate the demography and spatial behavior of the first farming communities in the Central Balkans in order to infer the parameters and mechanisms of the Neolithic expansion in this part of Europe. We compare the simulation output to the empirical record of radiocarbon dates in order to systematically evaluate which expansion scenarios were the most probable. Our results suggest that if the expansion of the Neolithic unfolded in accord with the specific wave of advance model that we presented in this paper, the expansion was driven by very high fertility and community fission to avoid social tensions. The simulation suggests that the number of children born by an average Neolithic woman who lived through her entire fertile period was around 8 children or more, which is on the high end of the ethnographically recorded human total fertility rate spectrum. The most plausible simulated fission threshold values are between 50 and 100 people, which is usually smaller than the estimated environmental carrying capacity. This would suggest that the primary reason for the community fission and for seeking out new land was social rather than ecological.

是什么推动了欧洲第一批农民的迁徙？人口，社会和环境如何相互联系，以引起考古学揭示的宏观区域扩张模式？我们模拟了巴尔干中部第一个农业社区的人口统计学和空间行为，以便推断出欧洲这一地区新石器时代扩张的参数和机制。我们将模拟输出与放射性碳数据的经验记录进行比较，以便系统地评估哪种扩展方案最可能。我们的结果表明，如果新石器时代的扩张按照我们在本文中提出的特定的先行模式展开，则扩张是由很高的生育率和社区分裂驱动的，从而避免了社会紧张局势。该模拟表明，新石器时代妇女在整个生育期间所生的孩子数量约为8个或更多，这在人种学上记录的人类总生育率谱中处于较高水平。最合理的模拟裂变阈值在50到100个人之间，通常小于估计的环境承载能力。这表明社区分裂和寻找新土地的主要原因是社会而不是生态。通常小于估计的环境承载能力。这表明社区分裂和寻找新土地的主要原因是社会而不是生态。通常小于估计的环境承载能力。这表明社区分裂和寻找新土地的主要原因是社会而不是生态。