For different reasons the oil companies might apply higher required rates of return than they did some years ago, and this has consequences for investments and tax revenue in oil provinces. By applying various required rates of return as well as various oil prices, this study derives future Norwegian tax revenue during 2018–2050 by using a partial equilibrium model for the global oil market. An important contribution is a detailed modelling of the supply side including the complete petroleum tax system. The model explicitly accounts for reserves, development and production. Both investment in new reserves and production are profit driven. With rising required rates of return fewer of the high cost reserves become profitable to develop and investments decline. Intuitively one would think that lower activity and investments will lead to lower tax income for the government. However, because the government in practice carries a large fraction of the investments because of favourable possibilities for deductions of capital expenses for the oil companies, less investment in a period increases the tax base and the tax income. The initial effect is offset by a subsequent reduction in production which has a negative effect on future taxes. The result is that increasing required rates of return will lead to small variations in net present value of total tax revenue. Further, with lower oil prices, tax take increases significantly when required rates of return rise.

由于不同的原因，石油公司可能会采用比几年前更高的要求回报率，这对石油省份的投资和税收产生了影响。通过应用各种要求的收益率以及各种石油价格，本研究通过使用全球石油市场的部分均衡模型，得出了挪威在2018-2050年期间的未来税收收入。一个重要的贡献是对供应方的详细建模，包括完整的石油税制。该模型明确说明了储量，开发和生产。对新储量的投资和生产均受利润驱动。随着所需收益率的上升，开发成本高昂的储备变得越来越少，而投资却减少了。凭直觉，人们会认为，减少活动和投资将导致政府税收收入减少。但是，由于在实践中政府由于减少了石油公司的资本支出的有利可能性而承担了大部分投资，因此，在一定时期内减少投资会增加税基和税收收入。最初的影响被随后的生产减少所抵消，这对未来的税收产生了负面影响。结果是，要求的收益率提高将导致总税收净值的微小变化。此外，随着较低的石油价格，当要求的回报率上升时，税收收入将显着增加。由于在实践中政府由于减少了石油公司的资本支出的有利可能性而承担了大部分投资，因此，在一定时期内减少投资会增加税基和税收收入。最初的影响被随后的生产减少所抵消，这对未来的税收产生了负面影响。结果是，要求的收益率提高将导致总税收净值的微小变化。此外，随着较低的石油价格，当要求的回报率上升时，税收收入将显着增加。由于在实践中政府由于减少了石油公司的资本支出的有利可能性而承担了大部分投资，因此，在一定时期内减少投资会增加税基和税收收入。最初的影响被随后的生产减少所抵消，这对未来的税收产生了负面影响。结果是，要求的收益率提高将导致总税收净值的微小变化。此外，随着较低的石油价格，当要求的回报率上升时，税收收入将显着增加。结果是，要求的收益率提高将导致总税收净值的微小变化。此外，随着较低的石油价格，当要求的回报率上升时，税收收入将显着增加。结果是，要求的收益率提高将导致总税收净值的微小变化。此外，随着较低的石油价格，当要求的回报率上升时，税收收入将显着增加。