Predictors and prediction skill for marine cold-air outbreaks over the Barents Sea,Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

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Predictors and prediction skill for marine cold-air outbreaks over the Barents Sea
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society ( IF 3.0 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-07 , DOI: 10.1002/qj.4038
Iuliia Polkova ₁ , Hilla Afargan‐Gerstman ₂ , Daniela I.V. Domeisen ₂ , Martin P. King ₃ , Paolo Ruggieri _{4,

5} , Panos Athanasiadis ₄ , Mikhail Dobrynin _{1,

6} , Øivin Aarnes ₇ , Marlene Kretschmer ₈ , Johanna Baehr ₁

Affiliation

Marine cold-air outbreaks (MCAOs) create conditions for hazardous maritime mesocyclones (polar lows) posing risks to marine infrastructure. For marine management, skilful predictions of MCAOs would be highly beneficial. For this reason, we investigate (a) the ability of a seasonal prediction system to predict MCAOs and (b) the possibilities to improve predictions through large-scale causal drivers. Our results show that the seasonal ensemble predictions have high prediction skill for MCAOs over the Nordic Seas for about 20 days starting from November initial conditions. To study causal drivers of MCAOs, we utilize a causal effect network approach applied to the atmospheric reanalysis ERA-Interim and identify local sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation patterns over Scandinavia as valuable predictors. Prediction skill for MCAOs is further improved up to 40 days by including MCAO predictors in the analysis.

中文翻译：

巴伦支海海洋冷空气暴发的预报器和预报技巧

海洋冷空气爆发 (MCAO) 为危害海洋基础设施的危险海洋中气旋（极地低气压）创造了条件。对于海洋管理，对 MCAO 的巧妙预测将非常有益。出于这个原因，我们研究了 (a) 季节性预测系统预测 MCAO 的能力和 (b) 通过大规模因果驱动改进预测的可能性。我们的结果表明，从 11 月的初始条件开始，季节性集合预测对北欧海域的 MCAO 具有较高的预测能力，持续时间约为 20 天。为了研究 MCAO 的因果驱动因素，我们利用应用于大气再分析 ERA-Interim 的因果效应网络方法，并将斯堪的纳维亚半岛的局部海面温度和大气环流模式确定为有价值的预测因子。

更新日期：2021-04-07

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