Globally, many parts of fire emissions are driven by deforestation. However, few studies have attempted to evaluate deforestation and vegetation degradation fires (DDF) and predict how they will change in the future. In this study, we expanded a fire model used in the Community Land Model to reflect the diverse causes of DDF. This enabled us to differentiate DDFs by cause (climate change, wood harvesting, and cropland, pastureland, and urban land‐use changes) and seasonality. We then predicted the state of fire regimes in the 2050s and 2090s under RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0 scenarios. Our results indicate that the area affected by global total fires will decrease from the current 452 to 211–378 Mha yr⁻¹ in the 2090s under RCP 6.0 and to 184–333 Mha yr⁻¹ under RCP 2.6, mainly due to socioeconomic factors such as population and economic growth. We also predict that DDF will decrease from the current 73 million hectares per year (Mha yr⁻¹) to 54–66 Mha yr⁻¹ in the 2090s under RCP 6.0 and 46–55 Mha yr⁻¹ under RCP 2.6. The main contributor to these decreases in DDF burned area was climate change, especially the increasing of precipitation. The impact of future land use change on future DDF was similar or slightly lower than present‐day. South America, Indonesia, and Australia were identified as high‐risk regions for future DDF, mainly due to the expansion of wood harvest and pastureland. Appropriate land and fire management policies will be needed to reduce future fire damage in these areas.

中文翻译：

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毁林和植被退化将如何影响全球火灾？

在全球范围内，许多火灾排放是由森林砍伐造成的。但是，很少有研究试图评估毁林和植被退化大火（DDF）并预测它们在未来的变化。在本研究中，我们扩展了社区土地模型中使用的火灾模型，以反映DDF的多种原因。这使我们能够按原因（气候变化，砍伐木材，耕地，牧场和城市土地利用变化）和季节来区分DDF。然后，我们预测了RCP 2.6和RCP 6.0方案下2050年代和2090年代的火灾状况。我们的结果表明，在RCP 6.0下，到2090年代，受全球总火灾影响的区域将从当前的452减少到211–378 Mha yr ^-1，而到184–333 Mha yr ^-1根据RCP 2.6的规定，主要是由于人口和经济增长等社会经济因素。我们还预测，DDF将从目前的73000000公顷（MHA年减少每年^-1），以54-66亿公顷年^-1在2090年代RCP 6.0和46-55亿公顷年在^-1 RCP 2.6下。DDF燃烧面积减少的主要原因是气候变化，尤其是降水增加。未来土地用途变化对未来DDF的影响与今天相似或略低。南美，印度尼西亚和澳大利亚被确定为未来DDF的高风险地区，这主要是由于木材采伐和牧场的扩大。将需要采取适当的土地和火灾管理政策，以减少这些地区将来发生的火灾。