Climate change impact varies at regional as well as species level and accordingly research needs to be focused on exploring the region-wise influence of oceanographic variations on key marine species. The present study depicts the annual and decadal fluctuations in Indian mackerel fishery along Kerala coast of southeastern Arabian Sea over a time period of 31 years (1985–2016), its relationship between four major oceanographic variables (SST, Pr, SSS and SSC) and future predictions under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Coast specific changes of these oceanographic variables since 1960 provide a baseline status of the existing climatic conditions of the marine ecosystem of the SEAS whereas, the RCP projections till 2100 provide an insight to the future conditions. Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) has been used to comprehend the relation among the Weighted CPUE (cpue) and Relative effort (Effort) of Indian mackerel and the four major oceanographic variables. The GAM model could explain 68.9 % and 71.1 % deviance of cpue and Effort respectively. The significance of the most influential oceanographic variables on the cpue of Indian mackerel were in the order SST > Pr > SSC > SSS and for Effort were in the order Pr > SST > SSS > SSC. The projected cpue and Effort of Indian mackerel exhibits varying trends under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0 scenarios. The future catch potential of Indian mackerel predicted under both RCP scenarios for the period 2020–2100 also show reduction, with the latter exhibiting a more drastic reduction. The study implies that for sustainable long-term fishery and to reduce the impact of climate change on Indian mackerel, the fishing pressure has to be maintained at low and healthy level.

气候变化的影响在区域和物种层面上都各不相同，因此，研究重点应放在探索海洋变化对主要海洋物种的区域影响上。本研究描述了阿拉伯海东南部喀拉拉邦沿海沿31年（1985-2016年）印度鲭鱼渔业的年度和年代际波动，其与四个主要海洋变量（SST，Pr，SSS和SSC）之间的关系以及两种代表性浓度途径（RCP）下的未来预测。自1960年以来，这些海洋变量的海岸特定变化提供了SEAS海洋生态系统现有气候条件的基线状态，而直到2100年的RCP预测都提供了对未来条件的洞察力。cpue）和印度鲭鱼的相对工作量（Effort）以及四个主要海洋学变量。该GAM模型可以解释的68.9％和71.1％越轨CPUE和努力分别。上最具影响力的海洋变量的意义CPUE印度鲭鱼都是在为了SST>公关> SSC> SSS和努力都在级PR> SST> SSS> SSC。预计的成本和工作量在RCP 4.5和RCP 6.0方案下，印度鲭鱼的展品趋势各不相同。在两种RCP情景下预测的2020–2100年印度鲭鱼的未来捕捞潜力也有所减少，而后者表现出更大幅度的减少。该研究表明，为了实现可持续的长期渔业并减少气候变化对印度鲭鱼的影响，必须将捕捞压力维持在较低的健康水平。