Oil-dependent countries face a twin-shock: in addition to the COVID-19 outbreak, they are facing an oil price collapse. In this paper, we study the impact of this dual shock on the forecasted GDP growth in Africa using the COVID-19 outbreak as a natural experiment. We use the IMF World Economic Outlook’s GDP growth forecasts before and after the outbreak. We find that COVID-19 related deaths result in -2.75 percentage points forecasted GDP growth loss in the all sample while oil-dependence induces -7.6 percentage points loss. We document that the joint shock entails higher forecasted growth loss in oil-dependent economies (-10.75 percentage points). Based on oil price forecasts and our empirical findings, we identify five recovery policies with high potential: social safety net policy, economic diversification, innovation and technological transformation, fiscal discipline, and climate-friendly recovery policy.

依赖石油的国家面临双重冲击：除了 COVID-19 爆发外，它们还面临油价暴跌。在本文中，我们使用 COVID-19 爆发作为自然实验来研究这种双重冲击对非洲预测 GDP 增长的影响。我们使用国际货币基金组织《世界经济展望》对疫情爆发前后的 GDP 增长预测。我们发现，与 COVID-19 相关的死亡导致所有样本中预测的 GDP 增长损失 -2.75 个百分点，而石油依赖导致 -7.6 个百分点的损失。我们记录了联合冲击导致依赖石油的经济体的预测增长损失更高（-10.75 个百分点）。根据油价预测和我们的实证研究结果，我们确定了五项具有高潜力的复苏政策：社会安全网政策、经济多元化、