Using the between-sector variation in income as a new measure of economic uncertainty, this article proposes simple models and supportive empirical evidence for the simultaneous relationship between economic uncertainty and government size in the open economy setting. Main empirical findings are that (i) a larger government reduces economic uncertainty, and, at the same time, (ii) an economy facing higher uncertainty has a larger government. However, (iii) the government tends to resort to redistributive policies to reduce the uncertainty, while (iv) government direct spending is also an effective option for the purpose. The study also finds that (v) the new cross-sectional measure of economic uncertainty tends to rise when a country becomes more open to international trade. Our results suggest that there is some trade-off between economic stability and a small government.

本文使用部门间收入差异作为衡量经济不确定性的新方法，为开放经济环境下经济不确定性与政府规模之间的同时关系提出了简单的模型和支持性的经验证据。主要的经验发现是（i）更大的政府减少了经济不确定性，同时（ii）面临更高不确定性的经济体也拥有了更大的政府。但是，（iii）政府倾向于诉诸再分配政策以减少不确定性，而（iv）政府直接支出也是为此目的的有效选择。该研究还发现（v）当一个国家对国际贸易更加开放时，对经济不确定性的新的横断面测量趋于上升。