In the spring of 2020, the initial surge of COVID-19 infections and deaths was flattened using a combination of economic shutdowns and noneconomic non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). The possibility of a second wave of infections and deaths raises the question of what interventions can be used to significantly reduce deaths while supporting, not preventing, economic recovery. We use a five-age epidemiological model combined with sixty-six-sector economic accounting to examine policies to avert and to respond to a second wave. We find that a second round of economic shutdowns alone are neither sufficient nor necessary to avert or quell a second wave. In contrast, noneconomic NPIs, such as wearing masks and personal distancing, increasing testing and quarantine, reintroducing restrictions on social and recreational gatherings, and enhancing protections for the elderly together can mitigate a second wave while leaving room for an economic recovery.

在2020年春季，经济停摆和非经济非药物干预（NPI）相结合，使最初的COVID-19感染和死亡激增趋于平缓。第二波感染和死亡的可能性提出了一个问题，即可以使用哪些干预措施来显着减少死亡，同时支持而不是阻止经济复苏。我们使用五年龄流行病学模型结合六十六个行业的经济核算，来研究避免和应对第二波浪潮的政策。我们发现，仅第二轮经济停摆就不足以或没有必要来避免或平息第二波浪潮。相比之下，非经济非营利组织（例如戴着口罩和人与人疏远，增加检测和检疫，对社交和娱乐聚会的限制再次受到限制），