Using U.S. Census data for the period 2010 to 2016, for 383 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) and 3,137 counties nationwide, the authors examine the relationship between housing affordability and business growth in three industrial sectors: Retail, Information, and Professional Services. Housing affordability is measured by the percentage of cost-burdened homeowners and renters, defined as the proportion of households paying 30% or more of gross income toward owners’ costs or rents. The results of a generalized method of moments dynamic panel regression analysis are mixed using MSA-level data. However, using county-level data, the authors find compelling evidence that an increase in homeowner and renter cost burden has a statistically significant adverse effect on business growth in all three business sectors. For instance, over a 7-year period, if housing unaffordability increases by 1 percentage point annually, the number of Professional Services establishments is expected to shrink by 90,248 across 3,137 counties nationwide.

作者使用2010年至2016年期间的美国人口普查数据，对383个大都市统计区（MSA）和全国3,137个县进行了调查，研究了住房可负担性与三个行业部门（零售，信息和专业服务）的业务增长之间的关系。住房负担能力以负担成本的房主和房客的百分比来衡量，这是指支付总收入的30％或更多以支付房主成本或租金的家庭比例。使用MSA级别的数据混合了矩量动态面板回归分析的通用方法的结果。然而，使用县级数据，作者发现了令人信服的证据，表明房主和房客成本负担的增加对所有三个行业的业务增长具有统计学上显着的不利影响。例如，