Anthropogenic aerosols are hazardous to human health but have helped offset warming from greenhouse gases (GHGs), creating a potential regulatory tradeoff. As countries implement their GHG reduction targets under the Paris climate agreement, the co‐emissions of aerosols and their precursors will also change. Since these co‐emissions vary by country and by economic sector, each country will face different tradeoffs between aerosol‐driven health or temperature co‐benefits. We combine simple parameterizations of physical processes and health outcomes to examine three idealized climate policy approaches that are consistent with the Paris Agreement targets, which (i) optimize for local air quality, (ii) reduce global temperature change, or (iii) reduce emissions equally from all domestic economic sectors. We evaluate aerosol impacts on premature mortality and global mean temperature change under these three policy approaches and find that by 2030 the three policies yield differences of over 1 million annual premature deaths and global temperature differences of the same magnitude as those from GHG reductions. We also show that implementing equal reductions between all economic sectors can actually result in less beneficial health and temperature outcomes than either of the other options, especially in less industrialized regions. We therefore conclude that aerosol‐related co‐benefits and aerosol accounting guidelines should be explicitly considered in setting international climate policy.

中文翻译：

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《巴黎协定》对气雾剂的含糊态度导致不确定的健康和气候结果

人为气溶胶对人类健康具有危害，但有助于抵消温室气体（GHG）的变暖，从而造成潜在的监管权衡。随着各国根据《巴黎气候协定》执行其温室气体减排目标，气雾剂及其前体的共同排放也将发生变化。由于这些共同排放因国家和经济部门而异，因此每个国家在气溶胶驱动的健康或温度共同效益之间将面临不同的权衡。我们将物理过程和健康结果的简单参数化结合起来，以检验与《巴黎协定》目标一致的三种理想的气候政策方法，这些方法（i）针对当地空气质量进行优化，（ii）减少全球温度变化，或（iii）减少排放平等地来自所有国内经济部门。我们用这三种政策方法评估了气溶胶对过早死亡和全球平均温度变化的影响，发现到2030年，这三项政策产生的年均死亡人数差异超过100万，全球温度差异的幅度与温室气体减少的幅度相同。我们还表明，与其他任何一种选择相比，在所有经济部门之间实施均等的削减实际上会导致有益的健康和体温降低，尤其是在工业化程度较低的地区。因此，我们得出结论，在制定国际气候政策时应明确考虑与气溶胶有关的共同利益和气溶胶会计准则。