Influence of the modes of climate variability in the Tropical Pacific and Atlantic on accumulated rainfall and reservoir water volumes in the Northeast Brazil,International Journal of Climatology

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Influence of the modes of climate variability in the Tropical Pacific and Atlantic on accumulated rainfall and reservoir water volumes in the Northeast Brazil
International Journal of Climatology ( IF 3.5 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-07 , DOI: 10.1002/joc.7132
Rafaela Santos Gomes ₁ , Kellen Carla Lima _{1,

2}

Affiliation

The volumes of artificial reservoirs as well as the accumulated rainfall over the Northeast region of Brazil (NEB) are sensible to the modes of climate variability. Thus, the objective of this study is to identify the relationship between the spatial patterns of the modes of climate variability in the Tropical Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, and the homogeneous rainfall subregions affecting the recharge of the water volumes of reservoirs in the NEB during the period from 1986 to 2018. For this end, we used monthly rainfall; monthly water volume data for artificial reservoirs; sea surface temperature anomalies in the Tropical Pacific and Tropical Atlantic Ocean. The first step was to apply cluster analysis to subdivide the NEB according to the monthly rainfall climatology. After, the technique of synthetic maximum rainfall series was applied. Then, the response time between rainfall climatology and reservoir water volume climatology was identified by means of cross-correlation. Finally, the partial least squares regression was applied to infer the relationship between synthetic maximum rainfall series in each subregion and the modes of climate variability. Results showed that five homogeneous rainfall subregions with three distinct wet seasons. The synthetic time series of rainfall in the subregions were positively correlated with the climatology of the reservoir volumes with lags of up to 5 months after the beginning of the series. Both rainfall and the water volume of artificial reservoirs were sensible to the modes of climate variability of the studied oceans.

中文翻译：

热带太平洋和大西洋气候变化模式对巴西东北部累积降雨量和水库水量的影响

巴西东北部地区 (NEB) 的人工水库数量和累积降雨量对气候变异模式很敏感。因此，本研究的目的是确定热带大西洋和太平洋气候变率模式的空间格局与影响该时期内北非水库水量补给的均质降雨子区域之间的关系。从 1986 年到 2018 年。为此，我们使用了月降雨量；人工水库月水量数据；热带太平洋和热带大西洋的海面温度异常。第一步是应用聚类分析根据月降雨气候学细分 NEB。之后，应用合成最大降雨序列技术。然后，通过互相关确定降雨气候学和水库水量气候学之间的响应时间。最后，应用偏最小二乘回归来推断各次区域合成最大降雨序列与气候变率模式之间的关系。结果表明，五个均一的降雨子区域具有三个不同的雨季。子区域降雨的合成时间序列与水库体积的气候呈正相关，序列开始后最多滞后 5 个月。人工水库的降雨量和水量对所研究海洋的气候变化模式都很敏感。最后，应用偏最小二乘回归来推断各次区域合成最大降雨序列与气候变率模式之间的关系。结果表明，五个均一的降雨子区域具有三个不同的雨季。子区域降雨的合成时间序列与水库体积的气候呈正相关，序列开始后最多滞后 5 个月。人工水库的降雨量和水量对所研究海洋的气候变化模式都很敏感。最后，应用偏最小二乘回归来推断各次区域合成最大降雨序列与气候变率模式之间的关系。结果表明，五个均一的降雨子区域具有三个不同的雨季。子区域降雨的合成时间序列与水库体积的气候呈正相关，序列开始后最多滞后 5 个月。人工水库的降雨量和水量对所研究海洋的气候变化模式都很敏感。结果表明，五个均一的降雨子区域具有三个不同的雨季。子区域降雨的合成时间序列与水库体积的气候呈正相关，序列开始后最多滞后 5 个月。人工水库的降雨量和水量对所研究海洋的气候变化模式都很敏感。结果表明，五个均一的降雨子区域具有三个不同的雨季。子区域降雨的合成时间序列与水库体积的气候呈正相关，序列开始后最多滞后 5 个月。人工水库的降雨量和水量对所研究海洋的气候变化模式都很敏感。

更新日期：2021-04-07

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