Near-term ecological forecasting has the potential to mitigate negative impacts of human modifications on wildlife by directing efficient action through relevant and timely predictions. We used the U.S. avian migration system to highlight ecological forecasting applications for aeroconservation. We used millions of observations from 143 weather surveillance radars to construct and evaluate a migration forecasting system for nocturnal bird migration over the contiguous United States. We identified the number of nights of mitigation required to reduce the risk of aerial hazards to 50% of avian migrants passing a given area in spring and autumn based on dynamic forecasts of migration activity. We also investigated an alternative approach, that is, employing a fixed conservation strategy based on time windows that historically capture 50% of migratory passage. In practice, during both spring and autumn, dynamic forecasts required fewer action nights compared with fixed window selection at all locations (spring: mean of 7.3 more alert days; fall: mean of 12.8 more alert days). This pattern resulted in part from the pulsed nature of bird migration captured in the radar data, where the majority (54.3%) of birds move on 10% of a migration season's nights. Our results highlight the benefits of near-term ecological forecasting and the potential advantages of dynamic mitigation strategies over static ones, especially in the face of increasing risks to migrating birds from light pollution, wind energy infrastructure, and collisions with structures.

中文翻译：

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候鸟动态航空保护的近期生态预测


近期生态预测有可能通过相关和及时的预测指导有效的行动，从而减轻人类改造对野生动物的负面影响。我们利用美国鸟类迁徙系统来强调航空保护的生态预测应用。我们使用 143 个天气监视雷达的数百万次观测数据来构建和评估美国本土夜间鸟类迁徙的迁徙预报系统。根据对迁徙活动的动态预测，我们确定了将春季和秋季经过特定区域的鸟类迁徙者的空中危害风险降低至 50% 所需的缓解夜晚数。我们还研究了另一种方法，即采用基于时间窗的固定保护策略，该策略历史上捕获了 50% 的迁徙通道。实际上，在春季和秋季，与所有地点的固定窗口选择相比，动态预报所需的行动夜晚较少（春季：平均多出 7.3 个警报天；秋季：平均多出 12.8 个警报天）。这种模式部分是由于雷达数据中捕获的鸟类迁徙的脉冲性质造成的，其中大多数 (54.3%) 鸟类在迁徙季节的夜间 10% 进行迁徙。我们的结果强调了近期生态预测的好处以及动态缓解策略相对于静态缓解策略的潜在优势，特别是在光污染、风能基础设施和建筑物碰撞给候鸟带来越来越大的风险的情况下。