The present study develops an integrated assessment model (IAM) for food security under climate change for South Asia. For IAM, initially, an econometric model is estimated that identifies the impact of climate change on crop yields, using the historical relationships between temperature, precipitation, and the production of cereals. Subsequently, future projections have been collected for temperature and precipitation from climate models of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), and the previous econometric model is applied to obtain the implied future cereal yields changes. Then, the yield variations are fed into a multiregional Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, calibrated to the GTAP 9 database, taking the form of decreases in factor-augmenting productivity of the grains sector. Further, the present study evaluates the effects of climate change on an individual South Asian country. The results indicate that change in climate decreases food production, increases food prices, decreases food consumption, and thus affects the welfare. Trade and fiscal policy responses are investigated to combat the problem of food security. It is revealed that these two policies fail to compensate climate change damage in all the selected South Asian countries.

本研究为气候变化下南亚的粮食安全发展了一个综合评估模型（IAM）。对于IAM，首先估计一个计量经济学模型，该模型使用温度，降水量和谷物产量之间的历史关系来确定气候变化对农作物产量的影响。随后，从耦合模型间比较项目第5阶段（CMIP5）的气候模型中收集了温度和降水的未来预测，并使用先前的计量经济学模型来获取隐含的未来谷物单产变化。然后，将产量变化输入到多区域全球贸易分析项目（GTAP）模型中，该模型已针对GTAP 9数据库进行了校准，采取的形式是降低谷物部门提高要素生产率的形式。进一步，本研究评估了气候变化对单个南亚国家的影响。结果表明，气候变化降低了粮食产量，提高了粮食价格，减少了粮食消费，从而影响了福利。调查了贸易和财政政策对策，以解决粮食安全问题。据透露，这两项政策未能补偿所有选定的南亚国家的气候变化损害。