The Cook Ice Cap (CIC) on the sub-Antarctic Kerguelen Islands recently experienced extremely negative surface mass balance. Further deglaciation could have important impacts on endemic and invasive fauna and flora. To put this exceptional glacier evolution into a multi-centennial-scale context, we refined the evolution of the CIC over the last millennium, investigated the associated climate conditions and explored its potential evolution by 2100 ce. A glaciological model, constrained by cosmic ray exposure dating of moraines, historical documents and recent direct mass balance observations, was used to simulate the ice-cap extents during different phases of advance and retreat between the last millennium and 2100 ce. Cosmogenic dating suggests glacial advance around the early Little Ice Age (LIA), consistent with findings from other sub-Antarctic studies, and the rather cold and humid conditions brought about by the negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). This study contributes to our currently limited understanding of palaeoclimate for the early LIA in the southern Indian Ocean. Glaciological modelling and observations confirm the recent decrease in CIC extent linked to the intensification of the SAM. Although affected by large uncertainties, future simulations suggest a complete disappearance of CIC by the end of the century.

中文翻译：

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基于宇宙成因测年和冰川气候模型的过去几个世纪和 2100 年之间库克冰盖（凯尔盖伦群岛）的演变

亚南极 Kerguelen 群岛上的库克冰盖 (CIC) 最近经历了极负的地表质量平衡。进一步的冰川消退可能对地方性和入侵动植物群产生重要影响。为了将这种特殊的冰川演化置于一个多百年尺度的背景下，我们改进了过去一千年中 CIC 的演化，调查了相关的气候条件，并探索了到 2100 年的潜在演化ce. 受冰碛的宇宙射线曝光测年、历史文献和最近的直接质量平衡观测约束的冰川学模型被用来模拟上个千年和 2100 年之间不同阶段进退的冰盖范围ce. 宇宙成因测年表明冰川在早期小冰期 (LIA) 前后发生了进展，这与其他亚南极研究的结果一致，以及由南环模式 (SAM) 的负相带来的相当寒冷和潮湿的条件。这项研究有助于我们目前对南印度洋早期 LIA 古气候的有限了解。冰川学建模和观察证实了最近与 SAM 的强化有关的 CIC 范围的减少。尽管受到很大不确定性的影响，未来的模拟表明到本世纪末 CIC 将完全消失。