In a large-scale randomised experiment implemented with Kenya’s Electoral Commission, text messages intended to mobilise voters boosted electoral participation. However, the messages also decreased trust in electoral institutions after the election. This decrease was stronger for individuals on the losing side and in areas that experienced election-related violence. We hypothesise that the mobilisation campaign backfired because the Electoral Commission promised a transparent and orderly electoral process but failed to deliver on these expectations. Several potential mechanisms account for the intervention’s unexpected effects, including a simple model where signalling capacity via mobilisation messages can negatively affect beliefs about election fairness.

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选民动员和对选举机构的信任：来自肯尼亚的证据

在肯尼亚选举委员会实施的一项大规模随机实验中，旨在动员选民的短信促进了选举参与。然而，这些信息也降低了选举后对选举机构的信任。对于失败方和经历与选举有关的暴力地区的个人而言，这种下降更为明显。我们假设动员运动适得其反，因为选举委员会承诺透明和有序的选举过程，但未能实现这些期望。几种潜在的机制解释了干预的意外影响，包括一个简单的模型，其中通过动员信息传递信号的能力会对选举公平的信念产生负面影响。