Like many other countries, Germany has experienced rapid population and workforce ageing, yet with substantial variation across regions. In this paper we first use this spatial variation between 1975 and 2014 to estimate quasi-causal supply effects of ageing on regional labour market outcomes, drawing on the identification strategy of Böhm and Siegel (2020). We find in our panel of German labour market regions that workforce mean age has considerable negative effects on the wage returns to age. We also obtain suggestive evidence that relative employment rates of older workers decline when mean age rises. A decomposition of the heterogeneous regional trends using our estimates shows that ageing of rural regions is mainly driven by supply (reflecting local population dynamics) whereas urban ageing is driven by demand (reflecting responses to economic conditions). We discuss the differential implications of these drivers for regional policy.

中文翻译：

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人口变化与区域劳动力市场

像许多其他国家一样，德国经历了快速的人口老龄化和劳动力老龄化，但各地间差异很大。在本文中，我们首先利用1975年至2014年之间的这种空间变化来估计人口老龄化对区域劳动力市场成果的准因果供给效应，并利用该变量的识别策略。Böhm和Siegel（2020）。我们在德国劳动力市场区域小组中发现，劳动力平均年龄对年龄的工资回报有相当大的负面影响。我们还获得了暗示性证据，表明当平均年龄上升时，老年工人的相对就业率会下降。根据我们的估计，对异质区域趋势的分解表明，农村地区的老龄化主要由供给驱动（反映了当地人口动态），而城市老龄化则由需求驱动（反映了对经济状况的反应）。我们讨论了这些驱动因素对区域政策的不同影响。