We add a housing sector to the Reserve Bank of Australia's small open-economy model to explore the effect of commodity price shocks on housing investment. The model predicts that housing investment booms may follow commodity booms. Commodity booms have a persistent effect on housing services price inflation and they ‘crowd out’ housing investment. When the commodity boom ends, the combination of higher prices and falling interest rates induces a significant housing investment response. The model attributes a significant share of the recent increase in housing investment in Australia directly to falling commodity prices.

中文翻译：

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小型开放经济体中的住房和商品投资繁荣

我们将住房部门添加到澳大利亚储备银行的小型开放经济模型中，以探索商品价格冲击对住房投资的影响。该模型预测，房地产投资热潮可能会跟随商品热潮。商品繁荣对住房服务价格通胀具有持久影响，它们“挤出”了住房投资。当大宗商品繁荣结束时，价格上涨和利率下降共同引发重大的住房投资反应。该模型将澳大利亚近期住房投资增长的很大一部分直接归因于商品价格下跌。