This paper updates and extends the systematic review and meta-analysis of Wardman and Batley (Transportation 41:1041–1069, 2014), which hitherto was the most comprehensive study of the impacts of punctuality on passenger rail demand in the literature. Whereas the 2014 paper covered 51 elasticities from 6 studies in Great Britain published between 2003 and 2011, this updated paper adds 11 subsequent British studies yielding a further 201 observations. The meta-model recovers a range of significant effects, relating to whether the elasticity was short versus long run, flow type and distance, season versus nonseason tickets, the relevant measure of lateness, and whether the purpose of the study was specifically the estimation of late time elasticities. Allowance was also made for study quality-related issues. The data indicated that, despite dynamic models being commonplace, there is some uncertainty as to how long the long run is. Alongside the meta-model, the paper also reports new econometric evidence that addresses some gaps in existing evidence and knowledge, especially in relation to functional form and non-linearity of effects. Findings from both strands of analysis would seem to suggest that rail industry guidance has tended to overstate the demand impacts of punctuality.

本文更新并扩展了对Wardman和Batley的系统评价和荟萃分析（交通运输41：1041-1069，2014），这是迄今为止对守时性对客运铁路需求影响的最全面的研究。2014年的论文涵盖了2003年至2011年间在英国进行的6项研究中的51种弹性，而本文的更新则增加了11项后续的英国研究，得出了201项进一步的观察结果。元模型恢复了一系列重要影响，涉及弹性是短期还是长期，流量类型和距离，季节和非季票，相关的迟来度量以及研究的目的是否专门用于评估后期弹性。还为与研究质量有关的问题提供了津贴。数据表明，尽管动态模型是司空见惯的，但长远来看仍存在一些不确定性。除元模型外，本文还报告了新的计量经济学证据，这些证据解决了现有证据和知识中的一些空白，尤其是在功能形式和效应非线性方面。从这两方面的分析中发现，似乎表明铁路行业指南倾向于夸大了守时对需求的影响。