ABSTRACT

I develop a weekly coincident index of economic activity in the State of Hawaii. The purpose of the index is to nowcast the recovery from the COVID-19 induced downturn. The index is the first principal component extracted from 18 daily and weekly state-level time series, it captures about 80% of the variation in the sample, it is available with a four-day lag, and it predicts the changes in nonfarm payrolls, the Philadelphia Fed coincident index, and excise tax revenues.

中文翻译：

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临近预测 COVID-19 复苏的轨迹

摘要

我制定了夏威夷州经济活动的每周同步指数。该指数的目的是预测从 COVID-19 引发的低迷中复苏的情况。该指数是从 18 个每日和每周的州级时间序列中提取的第一个主成分，它捕获了样本中大约 80% 的变化，它具有 4 天的滞后性，它可以预测非农就业人数的变化，费城联储同步指数和消费税收入。