Starting in 2010, rapid fire salamander (Salamandra salamandra) population declines in northwestern Europe heralded the emergence of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal), a salamander-pathogenic chytrid fungus. Bsal poses an imminent threat to global salamander diversity owing to its wide host range, high pathogenicity, and long-term persistence in ecosystems. While there is a pressing need to develop further research and conservation actions, data limitations inherent to recent pathogen emergence obscure necessary insights into Bsal disease ecology. Here, we use a hierarchical modeling framework to describe Bsal landscape epidemiology of outbreak sites in light of these methodological challenges. Using model selection and machine learning, we find that Bsal presence is associated with humid and relatively cool, stable climates. Outbreaks are generally located in areas characterized by low landscape heterogeneity and low steepness of slope. We further find an association between Bsal presence and high trail density, suggesting that human-mediated spread may increase risk for spillover between populations. We then use distribution modeling to show that favorable conditions occur in lowlands influenced by the North Sea, where increased survey effort is needed to determine how Bsal impacts local newt populations, but also in hill- and mountain ranges in northeastern France and the lower half of Germany. Finally, connectivity analyses suggest that these hill- and mountain ranges may act as stepping stones for further spread southward. Our results provide initial insight into regional environmental conditions underlying Bsal epizootics, present updated invasibility predictions for northwestern Europe, and lead us to discuss a wide variety of potential survey and research actions needed to advance future conservation and mitigation efforts.

中文翻译：

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核对数据的限制和保护的紧迫性：蛙壶salamandrivorans景观流行病学

从2010年起，迅速火蝾螈（蝾螈在欧洲西北部）人口的下降预示着出现了蛙壶salamandrivorans（BSAL），蝾螈致病壶菌。BSAL对全球蝾螈多样性，由于其寄主范围广，致病性高，而在生态系统的长期持久性的迫在眉睫的威胁。虽然是一个迫切需要制定进一步的研究和保护行动，固有最近病原体出现晦涩必要的见解数据限制BSAL疾病生态学。在这里，我们采用分层建模框架来描述BSAL在光的这些方法论方面的挑战疾病暴发地点的环境流行病学。使用模型选择和机器学习，我们发现Bsal 的存在与潮湿和相对凉爽、稳定的气候有关。爆发通常位于其特征在于低景观异质性和斜率的陡度低的区域。我们进一步发现之间的关联BSAL存在和高密度的踪迹，这表明人类介导的蔓延可能会增加群体之间的溢出风险。然后，我们使用分布模型表明，发生在由北海，在需要提高调查工作，以确定如何影响低地的有利条件BSAL影响当地居民蝾螈，而且在hill-在法国东北部山脉和德国的下半部分。最后，连通性分析表明，这些丘陵和山脉可能是进一步向南传播的垫脚石。我们的研究结果提供初步洞察潜在的区域环境条件BSAL流行病，目前的最新预测可入侵欧洲西北部，带领大家来讨论各种需要提前今后保护和缓解工作潜力调查与研究行动。