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ICT investment and GDP growth: Causality analysis for the case of Korea
Telecommunications Policy ( IF 5.6 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-05 , DOI: 10.1016/j.telpol.2021.102157
Yeong-wha Sawng , Pang-ryong Kim , JiYoung Park

This study investigated how investment in the industry of Information, Communication and Technology (ICT) has been interlocked with the GDP growth of South Korea. Based on seasonally-adjusted quarterly time-series data for the period between 1999 and 2016 available from the Korea Statistical Information Service, a Vector Error Correction model was applied for the analysis. The results revealed that ICT investment and GDP growth affected bi-directionally except for the short-run case in which only ICT investment affected GDP growth. The results explain that ICT investment plays an important role in the economic growth of South Korea in the long term; at the same time, investment size in the ICT industry increases as the economy grows. Without controlling any other factors, we found GDP increases by 0.4% when ICT investment increases by 1%. However, in the short term, only ICT leads to GDP growth. Therefore, the recent stagnation in ICT investment experienced in South Korea could negatively affect the economic growth of Korea in the short run, and hence, in the long-run, if it should become prolonged. The ICT investment strategy revealed from this study is especially useful to policy-makers who plan the economic growth in South Korea and other ICT-advanced countries because promoting ICT utilization across all sectors requires putting legal and policy mechanisms in place.



中文翻译:

ICT投资与GDP增长:韩国的因果关系分析

这项研究调查了信息,通信和技术(ICT)行业的投资如何与韩国的GDP增长联系在一起。根据韩国统计信息服务提供的1999年至2016年期间的经季节性调整的季度时间序列数据,将矢量误差校正模型用于分析。结果表明,除了短期情况下,ICT投资和GDP增长是双向影响的,在短期情况下,只有ICT投资会影响GDP增长。结果表明,从长远来看,ICT投资在韩国的经济增长中起着重要作用。同时,随着经济的增长,ICT行业的投资规模也随之增加。在不控制任何其他因素的情况下,我们发现,当ICT投资增长1%时,GDP增长0.4%。然而,在短期内,只有信息通信技术才能促进GDP的增长。因此,韩国最近经历的信息通信技术投资的停滞可能会在短期内对韩国的经济增长产生负面影响,因此,从长远来看,如果应延长这种增长的话。这项研究揭示的ICT投资策略对计划韩国和其他ICT先进国家经济增长的决策者特别有用,因为要促进所有领域的ICT利用率,就必须建立法律和政策机制。

更新日期:2021-04-05
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