ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 pandemic has been causing serious disasters to mankind. The incubation period is a key parameter for epidemic control and also an important basis for epidemic prediction, but its distribution law remains unclear. This paper analyzed the epidemiological information of 787 confirmed non-Wuhan resident cases, and systematically studied the characteristics of the incubation period of COVID-19 based on the interval-censored data estimation method. The results show that the incubation period of COVID-19 approximately conforms to the Gamma distribution with a mean value of 7.8 (95%CI:7.4–8.5) days and a median value of 7.0 (95%CI:6.7–7.3) days. The incubation period was positively correlated with age and negatively correlated with disease severity. Female cases presented a slightly higher incubation period than that of males. The proportion of infected persons who developed symptoms within 14 days was 91.6%. These results are of great significance to the prevention and control of the COVID-19 pandemic.

摘要

COVID-19大流行已经给人类造成了严重的灾难。潜伏期是疫情控制的关键参数，也是疫情预测的重要依据，但其分布规律尚不明确。本文分析了 787 例确诊的非武汉居民病例的流行病学信息，并基于区间截尾数据估计方法系统研究了 COVID-19 潜伏期的特征。结果表明，COVID-19的潜伏期大致符合Gamma分布，平均值为7.8（95%CI：7.4-8.5）天，中值为7.0（95%CI：6.7-7.3）天。潜伏期与年龄呈正相关，与疾病严重程度呈负相关。女性病例的潜伏期略长于男性。14天内出现症状的感染者比例为91.6%。这些结果对预防和控制COVID-19大流行具有重要意义。