To address the impacts of future land changes on biodiversity and ecosystem services, land-use scenarios have been developed at the national scale in Japan. However, the validation of land-use scenarios remains a challenge owing to the lack of an appropriate validation method. This research developed land-use maps for 10 land-use categories to calibrate a land-change model for the 1987–1998 period, simulate changes during the 1998–2014 period, and validate the simulation for the 1998–2014 period. Following an established method, this study assessed the three types of land change: (1) reference change during the calibration time interval, (2) simulation change during the validation time interval, and (3) reference change during the validation time interval, using intensity analysis and figure of merit components (hits, misses, and false alarms). The results revealed the cause of the low accuracy of the national scale land-use scenarios as well as priority solutions, such as aligning the underlying spatial vegetation maps and improving the model to reduce two types of disagreement between the simulation and reference maps. These findings should help to improve the accuracy of model predictions and help to better inform policymakers during the decision-making process.

中文翻译：

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利用强度分析和价值要素图评估全国范围内的土地利用方案

为了解决未来土地变化对生物多样性和生态系统服务的影响，日本已经在全国范围内制定了土地利用方案。但是，由于缺乏适当的验证方法，土地使用情景的验证仍然是一个挑战。这项研究开发了10种土地利用类别的土地利用图，以校准1987-1998年期间的土地变化模型，模拟1998-2014年期间的变化，并验证1998-2014年期间的模拟。按照既定方法，本研究评估了三种类型的土地变化：（1）校准时间间隔内的参考变化，（2）验证时间间隔内的模拟变化，以及（3）验证时间间隔内的参考变化强度分析和价值要素（命中，未命中和错误警报）。结果揭示了造成全国范围内土地利用情景和优先解决方案准确性较低的原因，例如对齐基础的空间植被图和改进模型以减少模拟图和参考图之间的两种类型的分歧。这些发现应有助于提高模型预测的准确性，并有助于在决策过程中更好地为决策​​者提供信息。