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Evaluating simulations as preparation for health crises like CoVID-19: Insights on incorporating simulation exercises for effective response
International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction ( IF 4.2 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-05 , DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102245
Karen Reddin 1 , Henry Bang 1 , Lee Miles 1
Affiliation  

Today's health emergencies are increasingly complex due to factors such as globalization, urbanization and increased connectivity where people, goods and potential vectors of disease are constantly on the move. These factors amplify the threats to our health from infectious hazards, natural disasters, armed conflicts and other emergencies wherever they may occur. The current CoVID-19 pandemic has provided a clear demonstration of the fact that our ability to detect and predict the initial emergence of a novel human pathogen (for example, the spill-over of a virus from its animal reservoir to a human host), and our capacity to forecast the spread and transmission of the pathogen in human society remains limited. Improving ways in which we prepare will enable a more rapid and effective response and enable proactive preparations (including exercising) to respond to any novel emerging infectious disease outbreaks.

This study aims to explore the current state of pandemic preparedness exercising and provides an assessment of a number of case study exercises for health hazards against the key components of the WHO's Exercises for Pandemic Preparedness Plans (EPPP) framework in order to gauge their usefulness in preparation for pandemics. The paper also examines past crises involving large-scale epidemics and pandemics and whether simulations took place to test health security capacities either in advance of the crisis based on risk assessments, strategy and plans or after the crisis in order to be better prepared should a similar scenario arise in the future. Exercises for animal and human diseases have been included to provide a “one health” perspective [1,2]. This article then goes on to examine approaches to simulation exercises relevant to prepare for a health crisis involving a novel emergent pathogen like CoVID-19.

This article demonstrates that while simulations are useful as part of a preparedness strategy, the key is to ensure that lessons from these simulations are learned and the associated changes made as soon as possible following any simulation in order to ensure that simulations are effective in bringing about changes in practice that will improve pandemic preparedness. Furthermore, Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies could also be applied in preparing communities for outbreak detection, surveillance and containment, and be a useful tool for providing immersive environments for simulation exercises for pandemic preparedness and associated interventions which may be particularly useful at the strategic level.

This article contributes to the limited literature in pandemic preparedness simulation exercising to deal with novel health crises, like CoVID-19. The analysis has also identified potential areas for further research or work on pandemic preparedness exercising.



中文翻译:

评估模拟作为应对 CoVID-19 等健康危机的准备:关于结合模拟练习以有效应对的见解

由于全球化、城市化和连通性增强等因素,当今的突发卫生事件变得越来越复杂,人员、货物和潜在的疾病传播媒介不断流动。这些因素加剧了传染病危害、自然灾害、武装冲突和其他可能发生的紧急情况对我们健康的威胁。当前的 CoVID-19 大流行清楚地表明,我们有能力检测和预测新型人类病原体的最初出现(例如,病毒从其动物宿主传播到人类宿主),我们预测病原体在人类社会中传播和传播的能力仍然有限。

本研究旨在探索大流行病防范演习的现状,并根据世卫组织大流行病防范计划演习 (EPPP) 框架的关键组成部分,对一些针对健康危害的案例研究演习进行评估,以衡量其在准备工作中的用处对于流行病。该文件还审查了过去涉及大规模流行病和大流行病的危机,以及是否根据风险评估、战略和计划在危机发生之前或危机之后进行了模拟以测试卫生安全能力,以便在类似情况下更好地做好准备未来出现的情景。动物和人类疾病的练习已包括在内,以提供“一个健康”的观点 [1,2]。

本文表明,虽然模拟作为准备策略的一部分很有用,但关键是要确保从这些模拟中吸取教训,并在任何模拟后尽快进行相关更改,以确保模拟有效地实现将改进大流行病准备工作的实践变革。此外,人工智能 (AI) 技术还可用于为社区的爆发检测、监视和遏制做好准备,并成为为大流行病准备和相关干预措施的模拟练习提供沉浸式环境的有用工具,这在战略层面可能特别有用.

本文有助于大流行准备模拟演练的有限文献,以应对新的健康危机,如 CoVID-19。该分析还确定了进一步研究或开展大流行病防范工作的潜在领域。

更新日期:2021-04-18
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