The small tomato borer, Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Guenée, 1854) is a multivoltine pest of tomato and other cultivated solanaceous plants. The knowledge on how N. elegantalis respond to temperature may help in the development of pest management strategies, and in the understanding of the effects of climate change on its voltinism. In this context, this study aimed to select models to describe the temperature-dependent development rate of N. elegantalis and apply the best models to evaluate the impacts of climate change on pest voltinism. Voltinism was estimated with the best fit non-linear model and the degree-day approach using future climate change scenarios representing intermediary and high greenhouse gas emission rates. Two out of the six models assessed showed a good fit to the observed data and accurately estimated the thermal thresholds of N. elegantalis. The degree-day and the non-linear model estimated more generations in the warmer regions and fewer generations in the colder areas, but differences of up to 41% between models were recorded mainly in the warmer regions. In general, both models predicted an increase in the voltinism of N. elegantalis in most of the study area, and this increase was more pronounced in the scenarios with high emission of greenhouse gases. The mathematical model (74.8%) and the location (9.8%) were the factors that mostly contributed to the observed variation in pest voltinism. Our findings highlight the impact of climate change on the voltinism of N. elegantalis and indicate that an increase in its population growth is expected in most regions of the study area.

中文翻译：

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选择模型来描述优雅新亮光菌（鳞翅目：蟹科）的温度依赖性发展及其在未来气候条件下预测物种伏打性的应用

小番茄蛀虫，新亮氨酸(Guenée, 1854) 是番茄和其他栽培茄科植物的多种害虫。关于如何的知识优雅猪笼草对温度做出反应可能有助于制定害虫管理策略，以及了解气候变化对其产生的影响。在这种情况下，本研究旨在选择模型来描述与温度相关的发展速率优雅猪笼草并应用最佳模型来评估气候变化对害虫危害的影响。Voltinism 使用最佳拟合非线性模型和度日方法估计，使用代表中间和高温室气体排放率的未来气候变化情景。评估的六个模型中有两个显示出与观测数据的良好拟合，并准确估计了热阈值优雅猪笼草。度日和非线性模型估计温暖地区的代数较多，寒冷地区的代数较少，但模型之间的差异高达 41%，主要是在较温暖的地区。一般来说，两种模型都预测优雅猪笼草在大部分研究区域中，这种增加在温室气体高排放情景中更为明显。数学模型 (74.8%) 和位置 (9.8%) 是导致观察到的害虫变态变化的主要因素。我们的研究结果强调了气候变化对优雅猪笼草并表明在研究区域的大部分地区，其人口增长预计会增加。